15

April2021

Vitarka

ANTYA’s views on investing markets, economy, and more

Latest Insights

Tesla Inc. – Quantitative Succor for Ethical Ineptitude

For rational investors, at the current valuation, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) presents an unparalleled chance to buy a large capitalisation growth stock with an addressable market of hundreds of billions of dollars. Tesla will likely capture a significant share of the transportation industry profit pool going forward. While traditional automakers play the BCG matrix to reposition the product portfolio, Tesla offers a pure, unencumbered play on green energy, electric…

Tesla Inc. – A Chastised Musk Is a Win for All Shareholders; Thankfully This Too Shall Pass

The last seventeen days have been tumultuous for Musk, for Tesla Inc. and its employees, for those that are short Tesla, and for the shareholders of Tesla. Monday could be another highly volatile day for the stock as short-term arbitrageurs re-balance portfolios, now that “No Deal” is the official word. Musk stays put in his position with the unwavering support of the board, and we can all go back…

Meituan Dianping – Alibaba Investing Billions to Reach 50% Market Share

Jd.Com Inc (Adr) (JD US) with Walmart, Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) with Softbank Group (9984 JP), Meituan Dianping (MEITUAN CH) with Tencent Holdings (700 HK), and many others are all vying for the holy grail of delivery services in China. In our view, success is less about making money on delivery riders, and more about ensuring adoption of rival payment platforms by merchants and customers. In that scenario,…

Xiaomi Inc. – Honest Pricing Contributes to Declining Margins. We Remain on the Sidelines.

“Amazing Products, honest pricing” is a great tag line for selling to wary consumers and creating an emotional attachment to Xiaomi Corp’s (1810 HK) brand. However, investors need to consider the opportunity cost of capital and from that perspective, the Company’s current EBITDA margin trajectory and its current equity value do not provide an incentive to conservative investors like us to play the game. We remain on the sidelines.

Xiaomi Inc. — Honest Pricing Contributes to Declining Margins. We Remain on the Sidelines.

“Amazing Products, honest pricing” is a great tag line for selling to wary consumers and creating an emotional attachment to Xiaomi Corp’s (1810 HK) brand. However, investors need to consider the opportunity cost of capital and from that perspective, the Company’s current EBITDA margin trajectory and its current equity value do not provide an incentive to conservative investors like us to play the game. We remain on the sidelines.

NIO Inc. – Rumoured Saudi Interest in Lucid Motors – What Does It Tell Us About NIO and Tesla?

NIO Inc (NIO US) is coming to the market amidst rumours of PIF, the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia, investing up to US$1 billion in Lucid Motors, an electric vehicle start-up in California. As per media reports, PIF has also taken a 5% stake in Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and could be considering a privatisation transaction with Musk and other shareholders of Tesla. A private Tesla would benefit…

NIO Inc. – NIO for the Braveheart and Tesla for the Warrior in You

Sentiment on China and the news on Tesla are a definite no-no when it comes to subscribing to NIO’s IPO. Financial statements are unlikely to be of benefit when considering an investment in NIO because not only are they backwards-looking, but also bereft of optimistic forecasts. NIO is a venture investment, just as Tesla was in 2010, with one crucial caveat. China is growing gangbusters, adopting leading-edge technology like…

Tesla Inc. – NIO Inc. Registration Statement Highlights Tesla’s Opportunity in China

Tesla has occupied the pole position in the electric vehicle market since 2000. Now another start-up from China is looking to provide some serious competition to Tesla. If short interest in Tesla is a leading indicator, we are interested in making friends with those brave souls that would be willing to bet on NIO Inc. because NIO is 15 years behind Tesla, and faces the same challenges as Tesla.…

Meituan Dianping – Market Domination & Share Gains to What End?

Meituan Dianping has built an enviable position in China but is now under attack from all directions. Well funded opponents including Alibaba, Didi, and JD.Com are either fortifying their position or have already bulked up for a debilitating battle. It is unlikely that anyone will take a bow soon and hence IPO investors should take a conservative position while subscribing to shares on offer

Meituan Dianping – Peak Value Is Estimated @ US$ 7.50/Share

Meituan Dianping (MEITUAN CH) is coming to the market at a difficult time. A slowing Chinese economy, a weaker currency and the threat of an all-out trade war could dampen investor sentiment. In ANTYA’s view, US$ 6.25/ share, or thereabouts, is a fair price for IPO investors to pay. That level provides a margin of safety and includes room for capital appreciation

Tesla Inc. — Whats Not to Like?

Tesla Inc. survived a rough Q2-18, and it now appears that much better days are in store for shareholders. Musk reaffirmed that Tesla does not require new equity, will repay and refinance its debts from internally generated cash flows, will reach 15% gross margin for Model 3 in Q3-18,and 20% in Q4-18, will build a factory to produce 250,000 cars in Shanghai in 2019 in a highly capital efficient…

NXP Semiconductors NV: Ignore the Noise, Go for It – Only Two More Days Left

News headlines, President Trump’s tweets, rhetoric from China’s bureaucracy, and jittery investors have contributed to NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI US) trading at a 20% discount to the price proposed by Qualcomm to acquire the company. We believe investors should ignore the noise and take the plunge. There is a very high degree of probability that NXPI will provide sufficient risk-adjusted return in short order for the few brave souls…
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