15

April2021

Vitarka

ANTYA’s views on investing markets, economy, and more

Latest Insights

Tesla Inc. — Shorting the Shorts — Next Stop $500/Share in 3 Months

For bulls like us Tesla Motors Inc.’s (TSLA US) announcement of meeting production goals is good news. Bears need to find a way out of the mess they find themselves in. Tesla has a market capitalisation of only $60 billion or thereabouts. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix , Alphabet, Alibaba, Tencent are all worth a lot more. Tesla will be a worthy addition to that walk of fame in…

Xiaomi Inc. — IPO Priced at the Bottom of Range — 50% Downside Forthcoming

According to various media reports, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) has successfully priced its IPO for HK$ 17/share, at the low-end of its proposed pricing range. We believe that there is 50% downside from the current levels, over the next twelve months, unless Xiaomi can come up with a miracle cure for “something”. It has already ridden the incestuous wave of China internet investments including fair value gains on iQIYI…

Xiaomi Inc. — Where Is the Transparency? Updated Equity Value Estimate of US$1/Share

Our updated sum-of-the-parts equity valuation, based on 22.4 billion post-IPO shares outstanding, including the approximate proceeds to the Company of US$3.56 billion (excluding the green-shoe option, assuming the stock prices at HK$ 19.5 at midpoint), implies an equity value of less than $US 1.00 /share of Xiaomi Inc. Our equity value estimate implies an EV/TTM EBITDA multiple of 20 x. That is rich!

Xiaomi Corporation: Updated Prospectus Supports Our $28 Billion or $2.66/Share Equity Value Estimate

We have previously discussed our view of Xiaomi Corporation’s valuation on a sum of the parts basis using appropriate global benchmarks in Xiaomi Corporation – U.S.$100B, $80B, $50B — Stop Dreaming. We Believe Even $20 Billion Is Too Much. We also highlighted the private market equity value of the Company based on various disclosures in Xiaomi Corporation — Value Is in the Eye of the Beholder – $100 Billion…

Tesla’s Rogue Employee – Distraction or Substantive

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US) (“Tesla” or the “Company”) is as much in the news on a daily basis as President Trump. While the tweetdom ruled by President Trump reverberates through global equity and bond markets, that ruled by Musk is a tug-of-war between truth at Tesla and the situation as perceived by bearish investors.

Baidu – IQIYI IPO Surfaces Value of Core Business – Search Is Undervalued

We believe Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US) has taken multiple steps to de-risk its business by divesting the financial services segment, and via a successful IPO of iQIYI Inc (IQ US). Given the valuations of iQIYI Inc (IQ US) and Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US), we believe Baidu’s core search business is undervalued.

Tesla Inc. – Musk Wins the Showdown – Onwards and Upwards to Shanghai, Europe and Mars

In ANTYA’s view, the worst is behind Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US). A barrage of criticism in the media failed to dislodge current management at the AGM on June 5, 2018. Furthermore, the update provided by Musk was as per the expectations of long-term shareholders, whereas those looking for additional ammunition to vilify Tesla’s management went home empty-handed. Although Tesla is not out of the woods either operationally or…

GM & Vision Fund JV Highlights Tesla Inc. Is Significantly Undervalued; Stock Is Headed Higher

Today’s announcement by Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP) owned Vision Fund and General Motors Co (GM US) are positive developments for Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US) which will allow the market to put a value on Tesla’s autonomous driving unit. We believe now the only hope that Tesla bears have is either a twitter war that unseats Musk, or Tesla’s inability to solve its Model 3 production problems in…

Xiaomi Corporation — Value Is in the Eye of the Beholder – $100 Billion or $20 Billion – A Wide Gulf

Xiaomi Corp (XIAOMZ HK) has gained global credibility by gatecrashing the smartphone market via value-based pricing and some luck. With Zte Corp H(763 HK) under the gun currently, the Company could benefit if the Departmentof Justice, President Trump and the Senate cannot come to an amicablesolution. However, any benefit is likely to be short-lived, and cannot sustain a valuation of more than $20 billion in equity value. Therefore, investors…
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